衡水市农户土地资源转出意愿的影响因素与行政干预

[目的]通过了解河北省衡水市农户土地转出的意愿状况,分析影响农户土地资源转出意愿的关键因素,并制定正确的战略决策,为构建农地适度规模化经营奠定理论基础,促进衡水市农民的现代化发展。[方法]文章结合调研情况,对样本区农户土地使用权流转行为进行了统计描述和分析研究,并运用Logistic模型对农户土地使用权转出意愿的影响因素进行了分析,找到了影响衡水市土地流转的关键性因素。[结果]研究表明,户主年龄、从事职业和文化程度、农户家庭非农收入以及农户家庭兼业人数等与农户土地转出意愿呈显著正相关关系,显著性数值分别为0. 018、0. 000、0. 010、0. 000、0. 028,而农户家庭农用机械数量则与农户土地转出意愿呈显著负相关关系,显著性数值为0. 033。此外农户社会保障程度和农户对政府土地流转的相关政策了解程度等因素也影响着农户土地流转的意愿。[结论]影响农户土地转出意愿的显著性因素包括家庭非农收入、户主年龄和职业;另外,户主的年龄、职业、文化程度、非农收入、家庭兼业人数和农用机械数量均是影响农户土地转出意愿的重要内容。     

A study of the relationships among sensory experience,emotion, and buying behavior in coffeehouse chains

Studies that simultaneously explore the effects of sensory experience on consumer emotions and behavior are rare. This paper builds a model of buying behavior based on sensory experience, 570 valid questionnaires were obtained from coffeehouse customers. Using structural equation modeling and multiple regression analysis, this paper validates the concept model and verifies that sensory experience is a significant antecedent to buying behavior. This study indicates that certain sensory experiences significantly influence emotion. Emotion also plays a mediating role in the relationship between sensory experience and behavioral intentions. The findings are theoretically and practically profound as they address the relationships among sensory experience, consumer emotions, behavioral intentions, and buying behavior, as well as explore how the five senses affect emotions and buying behavior. This paper concludes by indicating managerial implications and research limitations.     

普惠金融发展的地区差异、收敛性及影响因素研究*——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

本文利用2005—2016年省级面板数据，对我国各地区普惠金融发展水平进行测度，并在此基础上探讨其收敛性及影响因素。结果表明：（1）我国普惠金融发展水平在考察期内总体偏低，并且呈现出显著的地区差异性。（2）绝对β收敛在全国、中部和西部均存在，而东部不存在；条件β收敛在全国、东部和西部均存在，而中部不存在。（3）政府干预程度、市场化程度、人力资本质量、非正规金融以及外商直接投资对普惠金融发展均具有重要的影响。     

Advance selling of new products to strategic consumers on flash sale platforms*

Flash sale (FS) is a new business model that offers discounted products in limited numbers over a short period. In this paper we discuss the impact of strategic consumers on advance selling (AS) of new products on FS platforms. We first study the impact of strategic consumers on competing retailers adopting AS to sell a homogeneous new product. And find that the retailers’ AS profits and inventory quantities decrease with the strategic customers’ valuation and valuation decreasing rate. Then we analyse whether FS can mitigate the impact of strategic customers on retailers adopting AS for new products. We consider a newsvendor model involving only one retailer adopting AS to sell a new product. We derive the results by comparing this model with two counterpart models, namely the classical newsvendor model with no strategic customers and a newsvendor model with strategic customers where the retailer does not use FS under AS.     

基于可持续生计分析框架的农户宅基地流转意愿研究

[目的]宅基地流转是城乡建设用地优化配置和农民财产性收入增加的重要途径,对解决我国当前土地资源利用的供需矛盾,推动高效用地具有重要意义。文章从家庭生计资产量化入手,探讨不同资产配置类型农户宅基地流转的影响因素,旨在进一步推进宅基地流转进程。[方法]通过农户生计量化法和Logistic回归模型进行实证分析。[结果](1)农户整体宅基地的流转意愿较高,达到69.84%,但资产缺乏型农户的流转意愿非常低,仅有37.93%;(2)非农迁移意愿、宅基地功能和家庭生计资产总值对宅基地流转具有显著影响,年龄、专业技能、住房的满意度、宅基地面积、非农收入比例、非农就业状况6个因素对不同类型农户的影响出现差异。[结论]该文提出建立贫困农户的技能培训机制,制定多样化的宅基地流转制度,从而保证不同类型农户在宅基地流转后,整体福利水平不下降。     

China,Japan and the US Stock Markets and the Global Financial Crisis

In this paper, while focusing on the impact that the global financial crisis had on the stock markets of China, Japan, and the United States, the stock-price volatilities and linkage between these three countries are analyzed. In addition, the relationships between macroeconomic variables (real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables) and stock price volatility in each country are investigated. The estimation results of the EGARCH model revealed that although China’s stock price volatility was far greater than those of Japanese and US stock prices, China was less affected by the global financial crisis in 2007 than Japan and the United States. For China, stock price volatility was greater in the early 1990s, shortly after the stock market had been established, than in 2007 when the global financial crisis occurred. Furthermore, it has been revealed that the linkage of Chinese, Japanese, and US stock prices has increased since the global financial crisis. Moreover, Granger causality testing revealed China’s real-economy variables and monetary-policy variables do not affect China’s stock price volatility.     

Big data driven cycle time parallel prediction for production planning in wafer manufacturing

Cycle time forecasting (CTF) is one of the most crucial issues for production planning to keep high delivery reliability in semiconductor wafer fabrication systems (SWFS). This paper proposes a novel data-intensive cycle time (CT) prediction system with parallel computing to rapidly forecast the CT of wafer lots with large datasets. First, a density peak based radial basis function network (DP-RBFN) is designed to forecast the CT with the diverse and agglomerative CT data. Second, the network learning method based on a clustering technique is proposed to determine the density peak. Third, a parallel computing approach for network training is proposed in order to speed up the training process with large scaled CT data. Finally, an experiment with respect to SWFS is presented, which demonstrates that the proposed CTF system can not only speed up the training process of the model but also outperform the radial basis function network, the back-propagation-network and multivariate regression methodology based CTF methods in terms of the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation.     

The impact of crude oil inventory announcements on prices: Evidence from derivatives markets

This study examines the impact of weekly crude oil storage announcements on oil futures and options prices. We document evidence of a strong announcement day effect on both markets, and find prices to move in anticipation of the inventory surprise. Futures returns significantly decrease with positive surprises and increase with negative surprises. There is no evidence of an asymmetric impact on futures prices. Near‐the‐money options exhibit the greatest price sensitivity, and the magnitude of the price response of both futures and options declines with maturity. The results remain robust even after controlling for various macroeconomic and other storage‐related news variables.     

生态旅游视域下的岷江上游贫困山区生态安全评价

[目的]构建科学合理的评价指标体系,准确评价生态旅游影响下的区域生态安全状况,是推动少数民族山区实现旅游资源环境与区域社会、经济协同发展的前提和基础。[方法]以岷江上游贫困山区为例,应用灰色系统理论与熵值赋权法相结合,基于压力—状态—响应模型,构建生态旅游视域下的区域生态安全评估指标体系,并将评估指数与经济收入状况及贫困人口分布进行空间耦合。[结果](1)区域当前处于较安全水平,生态旅游开发适度;(2)综合评估指数与城镇居民可支配收入增长率、旅游收入对国民经济增长的贡献率呈正相关,且城镇居民在旅游开发中受益与机会较农牧民多;(3)综合评估指数与贫困人口比重呈负相关,与农牧民纯收入增长率没有必然联系。[结论]区域脱贫能够改善当地的生态安全状况,适度生态旅游开发是区域脱贫的有效手段,但应注重扶持农牧民在旅游业中的参与度,增加其旅游收益。